After throwing two picks, losing a fumble and having a punt blocked, the Falcons somehow emerged victorious over a dominant Tampa Bay defense. With the win Atlanta improved to 1-1 against all three division opponents and helped continue the wacky trend of NFC South teams being undefeated at home against division opponents. Ridiculous. So now Atlanta and Tampa are deadlocked at 9-5 with two games to go. Carolina has clinched at least a share of the division title, and New Orleans appears all but out of the mix for a Wild Card spot. Meanwhile last night the Dallas Cowgirls toppled the New York Giants (now tied with Carolina at 11-3 for the #1 seed), improving their record to 9-5. A win tonight and Philadelphia would be 8-5-1. There's only two playoff spots available... who's gonna take 'em?
Let's take a look at the remaining schedules for the teams in question:
ATLANTA (9-5): at Min, vs Stl
TAMPA (9-5): vs SD, vs Oak
DALLAS (9-5): vs Bal, at PHI
PHILLY (7-5-1): vs. CLE, at WAS, vs DAL
CHICAGO (8-6): vs GB, at HOU
Tampa hosts two AFC West teams, which tends to be two automatic wins. They improve to 11-5, I think they're in easily. Atlanta goes to Minnesota to take on MVP-hopeful Adrian Peterson and the hot Vikings, a winnable game for Atlanta but will be close. They throttle the Rams at home, lets say 10-6. Dallas hosts a very good Baltimore team who's fighting for a playoff spot of their own before heading to Philadelphia for a huge game against McNabb's Eagles. Dallas could easily lose both games, but lets say they take care of Baltimore at home, end at 10-6. Philly takes care of business tonight against the Browns, beats up the fading Redskins and takes care of Dallas at home? Its possible, but they'd still be 10-5-1 and get left out. Chicago could easily lose both of their games, but I'd say they split the two (probably lose at Houston) and end up 9-7, they're out too.
We're left with Tampa at 11-5, Atlanta at 10-6 and Dallas at 10-6. They did not play head-to-head, would both have a conference record of 7-5, and so we'd go to step three of the tie-breaking procedure: "won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four." Dallas played (and beat) Tampa, who Atlanta played twice, going 1-1. Atlanta lost to Philly, who Dallas will have played twice, going 1-1. Both teams beat Green Bay, but Dallas lost to St. Louis.. Atlanta's Week 17 opponent. Assuming I did this right (and I probably didnt).. in games against common opponents, Atlanta will have gone 3-2. Dallas will have gone 3-2. Okay so next is strength of victory (combined winning percentage of teams beaten)! Which Dallas has the advantage on... stupid Lions and Chiefs.
Look. Win and we're in. Beat Minnesota, beat St. Louis and we are all but guaranteed a playoff spot. Dallas is good but not good enough to end the season beating the Giants, Ravens and Eagles in a row. Its December! The real Romo is bound to show up.. then all this tiebreaking math and goofiness wont matter at all... and we'll be doing the dirty bird like its 1999.
1 comments. Leave Your Own!:
Amen, I think the falcons got a good chance of winning out. But so do the Cowboys. The Eagles suck, they really do suck, and I watch them every week.
The giants now have had two bad weeks against teams we really needed them to beat (I think burress is a bigger distraction then everyone thought). If the giants won those games, the falcons would be sitting pretty. So I am going to blame the giants if the falcons don't make the playoffs.
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