Lowe and Schafer Cruise By the Champs on Opening Day

The Atlanta Braves opened 2009 with a bang, beating up on the World Series Champion Phillies 4-1 in the season opener. Free agent acquisition Derek Lowe threw eight shutout innings, allowing only two baserunners, and rookie center-fielder Jordan Schafer hit his first major-league home run in his first at-bat. A sign of good things to come for Atlanta? I think so.

Now let's get one thing straight, I don't believe this game means we're a better team than Philadelphia. Their lineup is one of the top three in baseball and their bullpen is incredible. Last year they beat up on Atlanta 14-4 in the season series. They didn't blow one save last year, never losing when up after eight. That's almost perfect. And they need to be perfect with a subpar pitching rotation. Cole Hamels was bumped from last night's start due to injury, and while it may be the only start he misses, the Phillies have to rely on him to get them to another division title. Hamels won't face Atlanta in this series, meaning more matchups in Atlanta's favor this week. Jair Jurrjens and Javier Vazquez will pitch Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, against Joe Blanton and Jamie Moyer. I don't blame you for not shaking in your boots when hearing Blanton and Moyer's names.

Sport Illustrated picks the New York Mets to win the wild card and then go on to win the World Series this year. And given how often the Mets have underachieved the last couple of seasons, its not a bad pick for them to finally pull it all together for a full season. But again, its a team with plenty of holes in the rotation. The Braves might not have the power of either the Phils or Mets, but we will be able to out-pitch them any day of the week. For once the Braves pitching staff is healthy, durable and, most importantly, deep.

Lowe, Jurrjens, Vazquez, Kenshin Kawakami and Tom Glavine make up the rotation. Tommy Hanson, Kris Medlen, Jorge Campillo, Jojo Reyes, and Charlie Morton will likely get some starts throughout the season as well. And Tim Hudson is on track to return in August. That's eleven pitchers. Eleven pitchers who would make the Mets or Phillies rotation without even trying. Sure it gives us plenty of trading chips should the time come, but it gives us enough depth to not have to worry about anyone getting injured. It gives us enough arms to limit opposing offenses, and give our hitters a chance every game of the year. We may only average four runs a game this year, but if our starters keep the ball on the ground and in the park, we'll have a chance.

The addition of Jordan Schafer had an immediate effect last night as he reached base three times, including a solo home run. Over the entire season, the more important effect will be his defensive presence (and if you saw Brad Lidge's slider humiliate Schafer, you'll know to temper your offensive expectations). Since Andruw Jones left, center field hasn't quite been the same. And with a slow left fielder (either Garrett Anderson or Matt Diaz), the center fielder will have to pick up some of the slack on fly balls and hits in the gap. Schafer can do that. He's a gold-glove caliber player with speed, power and confidence and he's someone we're gonna get used to seeing in center field for years to come.

Another item of note was the performance of Jeff Francoeur. Sporting a new batting stance and less of a football-conditioned body, Frenchie blasted the first pitch he saw into the left field seats. Does it surprise anyone that it was the first pitch he saw? The new stance ought to give Francoeur a better chance at making solid contact at every pitch he flails at. Think of it as a way to exploit his notorious impatience at the plate. If he's going to swing at everything anyway, might as well figure out a way to make it work. So far so good, but let's hope he can keep it up for an entire season. Without consistent run production from Francoeur, the Braves may have serious problems scoring this year.

Last night's victory ought to make Frank Wren look good, ought to help give fans some ammunition to use against the Phillies, and ought to give us hope that last year will not be repeated. The Braves are one step closer to a return to form. Does it get any better?
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Braves Hold Spring's Best Record, But is it Meaningful?

The Atlanta Braves made a lot of changes over the offseason, from bringing three new starting pitchers to losing John Smoltz. Fans are going to see a different team take the field this summer, but given their performance this spring - it'll be a damn good team.

So far the Braves hold the league's best Spring Training record (12-3). Clutch hitting and stellar pitching performances have paced the new-look Braves to this point, seeming to answer questions as to how this team could win ballgames. At the plate, hitters have focused on driving in runs over driving the ball over the fence. Outfielders Matt Diaz, Brandon Jones and Jeff Francoeur are among the team leaders in RBI, alongside first-base phenom Freddie Freeman. With Chipper at the WBC (and injured) along with McCann, it's been a great testament to the depth of this lineup that they've been able to continue winning without their two best players. The pitching helps too.

While Javier Vazquez mows down hitters as part of a strong Puerto Rican ballclub, newcomers Derek Lowe and Kenshin Kawakami have been proving their worth in a Braves uniform. Lowe's sub-three ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 11 innings have earned him a 2-0 record in three starts. Kawakami, at 2-1, has an ERA under two. Flamethrowing phenom Tommy Hanson has made his push for an opening day spot (which he won't get unless Glavine's injured), striking out more than one batter an inning and sporting a solid 3.38ERA. Combined, our starting pitchers have thrown 54 innings, allowing 17 earned runs (that's a 2.83 ERA) while holding a 39:16 strikeouts-to-walks ratio. These are solid numbers, these are numbers to get excited about. And don't worry, Javy's done pretty well in a Puerto Rican uniform too: 2-0, 0.96 ERA, 1ER and 1BB in 9.1 innings.

It all starts with pitching for the Braves, and it always has. We have good enough bats to spark some rallies, score some runs and keep us alive, as long as the starting pitching can keep it close. So far so good. Is it a great indicator for the season? Not completely, as most spring rosters aren't 100% (especially given the number of players off in the WBC), but its good to see our pitchers throwing with a purpose and a passion to make this a winning franchise once again. They all seem excited for the season, to prove their worth and to take on the league's best players in 2009.
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Ten Things to Watch For As Pitchers and Catchers Report

A-Rod cheated when? Tejada lied to who?? Alomar did what???!? Baseball's offseason has taken a turn for the worse and the wacky this week. Luckily for us fans, the offseason is finally over.

This weekend MLB pitchers and catchers will report to spring training camps in Florida and Arizona. That means we've got CC Sabathia headed to Tampa for Yankees Camp, K-Rod to Port St. Lucie for the Mets, and Derek Lowe trucking to Disney's Wide World of Sports in Orlando. Yes after a relentless wave of one distressing news item after another, its good to start talking about something that matters - baseball.


So to help get you all excited about the upcoming season, let's run down 10 things to watch for (in no particular order) as batteries around the league begin to suit up:

1) Sabathia and Burnett in Pinstripes
The new-look Yankees rotation heads to Tampa hoping to prove they're worth the monster contracts. A year after injuries decimated their staff, the Yankees pin their playoff hopes on a younger, stronger core, as well as on the health of backstop Jorge Posada. With Abreu and Giambi removed from the middle of the order, the switch-hitting catcher will need to prove he's healthy for long haul.

2) Lowe, Vazquez and Kawakami in Atlanta
Speaking of injury-decimated staffs, the Braves will move on from Smoltz/Hudson/Glavine and start fresh with a trio of durable new arms. There's a chance they could come out of Spring Training with 7 or 8 potential starters, which would provide great relief to the bullpen. Set-up men Rafael Soriano and Peter Moylan are coming off major injuries, and closer Mike Gonzalez is less than two years removed from Tommy John surgery. A healthy bullpen could gloss over the likely lack of run support.

3) Old Closers in New Cities
Free agent departures such as K-Rod (NYM), Kerry Wood (CLE), Trevor Hoffman (MIL), Brian Fuentes (LAA) and Takashi Saito (BOS) means new roles for established set-up men around the league. How Carlos Marmol (CHC), Jonathan Broxton (LAD) and Heath Bell (SD) take to being the closer ought to heavily impact the playoffs hopes of their teams.

4) Jake Peavy Staying in San Diego?
Its been a couple of months since we last heard Jake Peavy's name associated with trade rumors, but as the seasons draws near its becoming more likely that if the Padres are still going to move him - its going to be soon. Possible trade partners Cubs and Braves appear to be set in their rotations now, leaving San Diego GM Kevin Towers with having to search for new suitors. Will Peavy be a Padre on opening day? Its likely. Will the trade talks impact his relationship with the ball club? It remains to be seen.

5) The Young Guns in Miami and Tampa
The two teams down in Florida will travel short distances this week to get to camp, bringing with them a cast of talented young pitchers. Tampa Bay will move David Price into the rotation alongside Kazmir, Shields and Garza. The Rays' front four might just be good enough to hang with any rotation in the league, including those highly paid Yankees. Meanwhile the Marlins' staff may not have the big names or national spotlight, but their front five could help them be the dark horse in the NL East. Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson, Andrew Miller, Chris Volstad and Anibal Sanchez are as green as can be, but all appear ready to make their mark in the bigs.

6) Rehab Projects in Boston
Rather than signing massive contracts like the Yankees, the Red Sox signed multiple players to smaller deals, banking on them to return from injury successfully. John Smoltz, Takashi Saito and Brad Penny join the pitching staff, and should they all be healthy by mid-season the Red Sox may as well throw out a six-man rotation and rotate closers between Jonathan Papelbon, Smotlz and Saito and save everyone's arms for the postseason. The best part of the signings is that the Red Sox have great pitching depth without the newcomers, putting little pressure on them to come out of Spring Training looking like spring chickens.

7) Three Cy Young's in San Francisco
The 'freak' Tim Lincecum will show up with his first Cy Young trophy this week. Meanwhile overpaid and over-the-hill Barry Zito will already be polishing his trophy, and newly signed Randy Johnson will lug his four trophies into the locker room. Suddenly the Giants have established winners in the rotation (not to mention young stud Matt Cain), its just too bad they wont be expecting Zito or Johnson to be on the pedestal again. Watch for the Big Unit's health as well as Zito's stuff, as getting a moderately productive season out of either of them is paramount to the Giants success this season.

8) Geovany Soto vs. The Sophomore Slump
The days of the one-year wonder Rookie of the Year are all but gone after a wave of superstars has flooded the league. Geovany Soto had a huge year for the Cubs, but fizzled out by September and limped into the playoffs. In his second season, Soto ought to be stronger and more prepared for the long haul, just as pitchers and scouts will be more prepared on how to attack the young backstop. A slight dropoff in production wouldn't hurt the loaded Cubs lineup too much, but keep an eye on Soto as he's expected to be a top-tier catcher for years to come.

9) Matt Wieters vs. The Hype
Last season the hype was on Soto, this season its on Matt Wieters. Pegged by scouts as a mix between Joe Mauer and Mark Teixeira, Wieters could be the savior for baseball in Baltimore. Fantasy players will be keeping a close eye on him throughout the spring, for sure, ensuring he makes enough of an impact to be a starter on day one. Veteran catcher Gregg Zaun was signed in the offseason, likely as insurance.

10) Ivan Rodriguez Faces Unemployment
Pudge is a first ballot Hall of Famer and the best catcher to play in our generation (if you take Piazza's defense into account) - so why hasn't anyone signed him? Many may cite he's over the hill or past his prime, but it seems like every new (and young) team he lands with instantly improves. He anchored the Marlins to a World Series title in 2003, and helped the Tigers win a pennant in 2006. My guess is that the Marlins would enjoy a reunion, letting Pudge work with their young arms is far from a bad idea (take note, Tampa Bay).

Also let's not forget that fellow first-ballot Hall of Famers Manny Ramirez and Ken Griffey Jr. have still yet to land anywhere. There are still deals to be made and rosters to be shuffled as the Spring Training schedule draws closer.
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Lowe Agrees to Deal with Braves

Now that Smoltz has left, GM Frank Wren is attempting to be more aggressive in the rebuilding of the Braves roster. Starting with the rotation, Wren has already signed (well agreed to terms with) Japanese veteran Kenshin Kawakami to a three-year deal, and expect more official news on that in the coming week. Today he extended a 4-year/$60M offer to free agent pitcher Derek Lowe, who appears to have agreed to its terms. You know Lowe, the guy who won Game 4 of the 2004 World Series (aka Boston's curse-reverser). Lowe spent he past four season with the Dodgers, winning over 15 games once (16 in 2006) and pitching less than 200 innings only once (199.1 in 2007). The Braves' offer out-bid the Mets' offer of $36M over three years. Lowe and his agent had been hoping for that fourth year, which is a bit iffy given Lowe's age (35), but as a sinker-ball pitcher (and not a power pitcher), Lowe is the kind of guy who may be able to pitch well into his 40s. In any case it seems like the Braves are counting on it. Afraid that Lowe may pull a Furcal on us, they are not reporting anything official until he signs the contract, but all signs show that the Braves have a new ace in town. Time to go update my MLB08 rosters!

Projected starting rotation for 2009:
Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez, Jair Jurrjens, Kenshin Kawakami, Jorge Campillo

In other Braves news...

• IF Omar Infante avoided arbitration and signed a two-year deal to stay with the team. Infante played all over the infield and outfield last season, proving to be a great asset off the bench. He was acquired from the Cubs before last season along with RP Will Ohman.
• SP Tom Glavine appears to have pushed back his first mound session to the end of week, choosing to play long toss first to strength that left arm. Glavine has not thrown off a mound since having surgery on his elbow and shoulder, but he assures everyone that there is no reason to be concerned.
• AJC beat writer Dave O'Brien reports that the Braves' interest in free agent LF slugger Adam Dunn has increased over recent weeks. Dunn, probably the best remaining free agent outfielder not named Manny, is a perennial 40HR, 100RBI, 100BB hitter.. who strikes out over 180 times too. And is a terrible fielder. Although being able to pencil in those numbers would be a great relief for an outfield that hit only 28HR last year. A two-year deal would be likely, I should think.
  

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Mets and Lowe in Talks

News reports have the Mets offering sinker baller Derek Lowe a 3 year 36 million dollar contract. A considerable sum, but his agent, Scott Boras, is not saying if the Mets are now at the top of Lowe's list. Boras is suppose to be looking for a 5 year deal, something I am not sure he will get because of Lowe's age. However he has historically stayed healthy. Boras also said there have been a number of offers from different teams. I wonder if the Braves are a part of that. If they're not, they should be, but I think the Mets are on the right track at about 12 mill a year. Now that some market value has been reported, the Braves should start to move. I know Boras can be an ass, but we really need one more pitcher. With this off season, if Wren doesn't get in the ballpark on this one, we can officially declare it an abysmal failure and one of the worst off season ever. We don't have to sign Lowe, but we need to compete. If we can't compete with Lowe, I am not sure how the Braves will be able to sign big names ever again. It's a scary thought, and it is time for the Braves to put that crap behind them and start to try and legitimately sign some names.

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Who's Left for the Braves to Pursue?

After pursuing Jake Peavy, AJ Burnett and Rafael Furcal and coming up short on all three, Braves GM Frank Wren has had quite the miserable offseason. So who's left out there for the Braves to get? I think there's a couple of free agents left we should get in on - and close the deal this time. With holes in the outfield and the rotation, I expect Wren to try and address these needs first... but my top guy doesn't pitch and he isn't an outfielder:

1) Orlando Hudson, 2B
After the debacle with Furcal, one thing became clear about the Braves roster: our middle infield is our best shot at trading for a stud pitcher. If we go sign Hudson (and he'll probably cost more than Furcal, think 3 years, $40M), that gives us a Gold Glove winner who can swing the bat, allowing us to actively shop Kelly Johnson. The Cardinals were interesting in Kelly, and would love to unload Rick Ankiel before he hits free agency, and he's a viable option for Atlanta. As is Ryan Ludwick. But if we bring in Hudson, I'm guessing come February Kelly will fill a hole in that San Diego middle infield, and we'll have a new ace at the top of the rotation.
Also look at Orlando Cabrera, a Gold Glove at short who can bat leadoff, though he had some problems dealing with Ozzie Guillen in Chicago, but so did Javy Vazquez.

2) Derek Lowe, SP
He's a proven post-season pitcher, top of the rotation, veteran with insane control. He may be the best sinker-ball pitcher this side of Brandon Webb. The only real issue I think is his age (35), but with his easy-going delivery and lack of power, think of him more like Jamie Moyer than AJ Burnett. This guy could pitch for a long time, and pitch well, in fact his control has actually improved over the last couple of years, barely issuing any walks. Pair him with another sinker-baller in Tim Hudson (in 2010) and you've got half the rotation keeping the ball on the ground, which usually leads to success (especially with Gold Glove-caliber talent in the infield). A three to four year deal would be good, somewhere just shy of what Burnett got from the Yankees.
Another option would have been Randy Wolf, but his agents happen to represent Furcal, so kiss that goodbye. Brad Penny could be a cheap option after a hugely down year, and he's a talented hard-throwing guy a la Vazquez. Ben Sheets would probably get hurt in Spring Training, pass.

3) Pat Burrell, LF
He's right-handed, plays left-field, and is an RBI machine. Say what you will about the former Phillie, he would fit nicely into our lineup. While I would prefer to see us deal for a cheaper option like Ankiel, Ludwick, or Corey Hart, signing Burrell to a 2-3 year deal might be perfect. Right now its all about bridging the gap between our current roster and our roster of the future (starring Tommy Hanson, Jason Heyward and Jordan Schafer), and the way to do that is to bring in guys like Burrell for a couple years. Burrell's value is higher than normal right now, but we have the money. And no matter what you think about Burrell, plugging him into left for two years definitely couldn't hurt.
Bobby Abreu and Juan Rivera could also work in left, but Abreu's a lefty, and Rivera is as injury prone as Ben Sheets, though he'd be cheap and does have potential.

Couple of other names to ponder..

• The Astros decided to non-tender Ty Wigginton. Wigginton went on a monster tear last season after LF Carlos Lee went down, replacing him in left. However he's normally an infielder (3B or 2B). He'd be cheap, can put up good (not great) numbers and doesn't require any sort of long-term commitment.
• P Daniel Cabrera was let go by the Orioles, who finally gave up on the right-handed flamethrower after years of never achieving his potential. Should Leo Mazzone still be here, I'd say Cabrera could be signed.. but I'm not sure relcamation projects are really our thing anymore.
• The Braves have been linked to courting Japanese pitcher Kenshin Kawakami. He's won the Japanese equivalents of the Cy Young and MVP in 2004, and posted an ERA of only 2.30 in 16 starts last season. The Braves met with Kawakami's agent at the Winter Meetings in Vegas, but there appears to be multiple teams interested in the hurler.
  

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Adios Burnett, Enjoy the Pinstripes

ESPN is reporting that coveted free-agent starter A.J. Burnett has agreed to a contract with... the New York Yankees! Worth over $82M over 5 years, Burnett had been aggressively pursued by the Braves ever since the negotiations to bring in Jake Peavy broke down. Burnett will join CC Sabathia in the new-look Yankees rotation, alongside Chien-Mein Wang, Joba Chamberlain and some combination of Philip Hughes and Ian Kennedy. Word has it that Andy Pettitte is likely to return for one more year, however.

So what's next for the Braves? Derek Lowe certainly looks attractive. A proven ace and postseason performer, Lowe has had great success pitching for the Red Sox and Dodgers. He throws a lot like Tim Hudson, dishing out a lot of sinkers and keeping the ball on the ground. While Turner Field is a pitcher's park, it would be nice to have multiple starters who aren't likely to give up the big fly all too often (we'll let Javy Vazquez take care of that). Ben Sheets is another big name who's available.. but let's just say I'd rather sign Kerry Wood than take a chance on Ben Sheets. Unless its a two-year deal. I remain adamant that we should re-open negotiations with San Diego to trade for Jake Peavy. Now that there's no other trade partners left (barring a push by the Angels), GM Kevin Towers may have no choice but to come crawling back to Frank Wren's doorstep, hat in hand, and willing to accept whatever gruel is tossed at his feet. Yunel Escobar is staying put. Tyler Flowers is already gone. Let's hope we still have the pieces (Morton, Reyes, Hernandez, etc.) to start things up again, because I think so far this offseason no one has taken us seriously.

We offered Burnett essentially the same contract as the Yankees. So it came down to a matter of preference, a matter of where he would rather play, and a matter of which team wanted him more. With Sabathia now on the roster, Burnett would slide right into the role that got him here: as the #2. And despite playing in New York, the pressure won't be quite as intense as he creeps around in the shadow of CC. He's pitched in the AL East for the past three years, and the Yankees are probably in a better position to win a championship sooner than Atlanta (who both play in incredibly difficult divisions). Whatever the ultimate reason, the Braves have not proven to the rest of the league that this is still an attractive place to play. This is somewhere you know you'll have a great manager, a great front office, a great city, and an opportunity to re-ignite the franchise that dominated the National League for fifteen years.

But all in all, I'm not upset we didn't sign Burnett. Throwing that kind of money at him is chump change for the Steinbrenner's, but for the Braves.. it smelled of desperation. Right now our front office appears unable to accept that fact that we are a year or two away from being contenders again. That right now, its the Mets and the Phillies. They have the same needs as us (and the Yankees), they have more money, more talent, and a better chance to win. So I ask you Frank Wren, Bobby Cox and the rest of the staff... let it all play out. Let the young players you regard so highly prove to the fans that they are worth the wait. Let Tommy Hanson start the season in the rotation, let Jordan Schafer patrol center field in April. The sooner we accept that 2009 is a lost cause, and is just a bridge to 2010 when these prospects will no doubt be ready (and Hudson will be healthy), then why not give the young'ns a chance to play. We certainly couldn't do any worse.
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Jonesin' for a GM With Balls

Its December! Two months from two weeks from this past Sunday, pitchers and catchers report! That means Brian McCann! Jair Jurrjens! Jorge Campillo! and .... aaaand....... no one else! Meanwhile the Cubs bring back the best starting rotation in baseball! The Padres still have Peavy. Mike Hampton just took a pay cut to go back to Houston! Houston!! So where's Frank Wren? Where's Franky boy, and what has he done with all of my hopes and dreams for a future where the Braves lose less than 90 games?! As of today our starting rotation is non-existent.

Right now our rotation would be what? Jurrjens, Campillo, Morton? Reyes? PARR?? Not one of these young'ns was projected to start, make the team, play any role for our team LAST SEASON. Not one of them. Now while Jurrjens is a bonified stud, he's not a number one ace! Not yet! So what's Frank Wren going to do to address any of the issues facing this desparate squad? I have ideas! I have plenty of ideas!! Like how, I don't know, maybe we should have closed the deal with Peavy. Maybe be aggressive and just get the players you want! You don't see the Yankees gripping tightly to their buckets of cash! Now I hope he proves me wrong. I hope two, three weeks from now I'm eating my words in a delicious sandwich with pickles, mayo and two types of pastrami. I hope I wake up on Christmas morn with a Peavy, Burnett, Furcal and a left-fielder under the tree! But even if I did awaken to such pleasurable news. We'd still have only four starters. I say Tommy Hanson is now under the gun to make this Spring count... and come into the season as the fifth starter. Or maybe the number three starter. He's that friggin good. Without him emerging we're stuck with getting some past-his-prime veteran or an overrated potential-filled rookie to just eat innings until Hanson is brought up! So here's what we do. First we break AJ Burnett's elbow since he'll probably hurt it anyway and this way the Braves won't sink a bunch of money into a highly talented (but highly fragile) pitcher again. Next we tell Padres GM Kevin Towers to stop making out with the Cubs because the Braves will let you get to third base on the first date. Give us Jake Peavy, give him to us now, you're screwing up our entire offseason you greedy, sneaky bastard coward. Finally, after trading for Peavy and signing Rafael Furcal and Raul Ibanez, we offer everything else we have for Derek Lowe. Boston wants him. I don't care what other teams might have interest, and, true, Boston expresses 'interest' in EVERYONE, despite having a nearly perfect roster as it is, but if Boston bids for him, we have to outbid them. Be aggressive, sign Lowe. He's an ace. He's a postseason stud. He's just like Tim Hudson. And he's just old enough so that you don't have to give him 6-8 years.. 3-4 should do just fine. So for the love of God, Mr. Wren. Help this team regain the respect John Schuerholz built up over a decade and a half, and give the Mets and Phillies to beating they so rightly deserve.



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