NL East, 3 week in

We are now about 3 weeks into the season, still early, but the division is starting to shape up. Surprisingly, the Fish are at the top with the Braves, Mets, and Phillies looking up. Here is my take on the start of the season for the Braves and some predictions.

The Braves have been somewhat digital this year when it comes to their offense. We tend to score in bunches, and mostly off the long ball. Garrent Anderson has been everything but impressive, and now he is injured. I hope he can make a comeback, but to be frank, I think the team will be better served with a platoon of Blanco and Diaz. Jeff Francour may be our best hitter this season, but one thing is for sure, to win we need Chipper to be healthy. McCann is having eye surjery, but I expect him to come back stronger then ever. Kelly is finding his groove, if only he can stop making errors. Our young stud Schaffer is starting to get found out, hoepfully he can adjust as pitchers adjust to him.

The pitching staff has been unsurprisingly deep, but it seems Glavine may be retiring. No worries, there is plenty of young talent to fill in. Derek Lowe has shown himself to be the number 1 starter, and Jair Jurjjens picked up where he left off, striking out batters and pitching quality starts. The bullpen has seemed shakey at times, and it may just be a closer by comittee between Soriano and Gonzalez. Blain Boyer is out there, and Peter Moylan is slowly finding his stide.

I am more convinced now then ever that this team can play above 500 this season and has a good chance to make the playoffs. But, this is the kind of team that is prone to skids. When the bats aren't hitting, everything seems to fall apart quickly. Baseball is sport of minimizing the damage, when we are down, Bobby has got to find a way to pick the team up. The bullpen may be our weakest point, but lets hope the starting pitching picks up the slack.

It is going to be a tight race, a three or four team race in the east. The "Natinals" have no chance, and have shown themselves to be the worst franchise in baseball. Don't count out the central division to take the wild card. The Cubs and Cards look good, but don't forget about those pesky Pirates. Out west, the Dodgers should take the division, but the Diamondbacks or the reloaded Padres may be looming. Once the Padres fall out of it, Jake Peavy may be on the move (sound familiar).

My prediction for the playoffs:

National League
Division Winners - Cards, Dodgers, Fish
Wild Card - Atlanta Braves (yes I am a homer)

American League
Division Winners - BoSox, ChiSox, Mariners
Wild Card - Yankees (but watch out for the Tigers)


World Series: BoSox vs Cardinals
Champions: Cardinals

That's right, my team to beat is the Cardinals. I reserve the right to be wrong, but that team is good. They hit well and pitch well (with some recent injuries). They have a top notch manager, and the Cards are a kind of team that can sneak into the playoffs and cause a lot of damage. As much as I want to believe that the Braves are the team to beat, I just don't see it yet. Maybe I will change my mind come all-stat time.

What do you think?


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Cycle, Cycle, Cycle!!!!

Last week I was stymied in fantasy baseball, not by my own choices, but by a single player, Ian Kinsler. Let's take a peak at the stats as they relate to my fantasy league:

9 R 6 RBI 6 SB 3 BB 4 K .556 AVG 1.600 OPS

His numbers alone were the cause of my demise. More so, he hit for the f*ing cycle. That happened on monday or tuesday (i forget), then on friday, Jason Kubel of the Mariners hit for the cycle, topping it off with a game winning grand slam homer. Then, on the following monday Orlando Hudson hit for the cycle. In a 7 day span that is 3 cycles. Something that is a pretty rare occurance, 2 or 3 times a season, has now occurred so close togeather. Does this mean that there won't be any more cycles? Maybe, I hope not.

Kubel and Kinsler were the fifth pair of players to hit for the cycle in a 3 day span. Then Kubel and Hudson became the sixth. And, I bet this is the first time 3 cycles occured in this time period (didn't do the reasearch, so don't quote me). Thank goodness I only had to play Kinsler in fantasy, and I pitty the openent who had to face all three. 

On the homefront, if the Braves could get a few cycles, looking at you Kelly (you've been so close), maybe we would start a winning streak and stop loosing to the pirates (and the 'Natinels'). 

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Lowe and Schafer Cruise By the Champs on Opening Day

The Atlanta Braves opened 2009 with a bang, beating up on the World Series Champion Phillies 4-1 in the season opener. Free agent acquisition Derek Lowe threw eight shutout innings, allowing only two baserunners, and rookie center-fielder Jordan Schafer hit his first major-league home run in his first at-bat. A sign of good things to come for Atlanta? I think so.

Now let's get one thing straight, I don't believe this game means we're a better team than Philadelphia. Their lineup is one of the top three in baseball and their bullpen is incredible. Last year they beat up on Atlanta 14-4 in the season series. They didn't blow one save last year, never losing when up after eight. That's almost perfect. And they need to be perfect with a subpar pitching rotation. Cole Hamels was bumped from last night's start due to injury, and while it may be the only start he misses, the Phillies have to rely on him to get them to another division title. Hamels won't face Atlanta in this series, meaning more matchups in Atlanta's favor this week. Jair Jurrjens and Javier Vazquez will pitch Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, against Joe Blanton and Jamie Moyer. I don't blame you for not shaking in your boots when hearing Blanton and Moyer's names.

Sport Illustrated picks the New York Mets to win the wild card and then go on to win the World Series this year. And given how often the Mets have underachieved the last couple of seasons, its not a bad pick for them to finally pull it all together for a full season. But again, its a team with plenty of holes in the rotation. The Braves might not have the power of either the Phils or Mets, but we will be able to out-pitch them any day of the week. For once the Braves pitching staff is healthy, durable and, most importantly, deep.

Lowe, Jurrjens, Vazquez, Kenshin Kawakami and Tom Glavine make up the rotation. Tommy Hanson, Kris Medlen, Jorge Campillo, Jojo Reyes, and Charlie Morton will likely get some starts throughout the season as well. And Tim Hudson is on track to return in August. That's eleven pitchers. Eleven pitchers who would make the Mets or Phillies rotation without even trying. Sure it gives us plenty of trading chips should the time come, but it gives us enough depth to not have to worry about anyone getting injured. It gives us enough arms to limit opposing offenses, and give our hitters a chance every game of the year. We may only average four runs a game this year, but if our starters keep the ball on the ground and in the park, we'll have a chance.

The addition of Jordan Schafer had an immediate effect last night as he reached base three times, including a solo home run. Over the entire season, the more important effect will be his defensive presence (and if you saw Brad Lidge's slider humiliate Schafer, you'll know to temper your offensive expectations). Since Andruw Jones left, center field hasn't quite been the same. And with a slow left fielder (either Garrett Anderson or Matt Diaz), the center fielder will have to pick up some of the slack on fly balls and hits in the gap. Schafer can do that. He's a gold-glove caliber player with speed, power and confidence and he's someone we're gonna get used to seeing in center field for years to come.

Another item of note was the performance of Jeff Francoeur. Sporting a new batting stance and less of a football-conditioned body, Frenchie blasted the first pitch he saw into the left field seats. Does it surprise anyone that it was the first pitch he saw? The new stance ought to give Francoeur a better chance at making solid contact at every pitch he flails at. Think of it as a way to exploit his notorious impatience at the plate. If he's going to swing at everything anyway, might as well figure out a way to make it work. So far so good, but let's hope he can keep it up for an entire season. Without consistent run production from Francoeur, the Braves may have serious problems scoring this year.

Last night's victory ought to make Frank Wren look good, ought to help give fans some ammunition to use against the Phillies, and ought to give us hope that last year will not be repeated. The Braves are one step closer to a return to form. Does it get any better?
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