Jonesin' for a Dog in the Fight

[photos from espn.com]


Our beloved Falcons were bounced out of the playoffs by the surprisingly tough Arizona Cardinals Saturday afternoon. The Cardinals, known solely for their amazing air attack, clamped down on defense and forced turnovers to keep their offense on the field. Give Kurt Warner enough chances to beat you, and he will. Though only losing by six, we were never really giving ourselves a chance in this one. We turned the ball over, couldn't run the ball, couldn't contain Fitzgerald/Boldin, and played poor special teams... and had a goofy safety called on us (which I've since learned was a totally normal call, the way it went down). Arizona prepared better, executed better and Burner and Matty Ice were just plain ineffective (save for Matty's smooth second quarter). Bottom line, we looked like a young team who was a little overwhelmed. Despite questions on our defense as to who'll return next year, we still have a good shot at returning to the postseason. With a year under our belt with this new team, I don't expect us to be giving away any games, whether by under-preparing or under-performing. Next year is important for the Falcons, to show that this year wasn't a fluke, that Matt Ryan is the real deal, and that we can hold our own in a very tough division. But longtime Falcons fans are surely weary of the fact that with any winning season in Atlanta - its surely followed by a losing one. We've never had two winning seasons in a row. Not in the 90's, not with Vick, not ever. All signs point to that trend ending.. but its a little early to get our hopes up just yet. Its on Dimitrof to step up with another brilliant offseason and fill the holes to make this team better. There's one good GM in this town, and its Dimitrof. And with his mind and Blank's money, we should be looking at a very solid contender in 2009.

Now then.. what's next? Where's my dog in the playoff fight? My first instinct was to pull for Miami, the other worst to first success story. I figured, hey if we can't shock the league, maybe they can! Well then Pennington tried out his best Brett Favre impression and threw four picks and lost to the Ed Reeds.. er, the Ravens. Well how about Peyton! Who doesn't love Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne, they've won nine in a row, their coach is a great guy, an easy team to cheer for I think! But then Philip Rivers yelled loud and hard and found himself with a win, riding LT's backup for a second straight postseason. Well shoot. Then there's the Eagles. My only pick this weekend to pull it out. Philly fans are crazy. Crazy. They actually don't want Donovan McNabb. After their victory yesterday, he improved to 7-0 in divisional round games. 7-0. Perfect. Never lost. Now true, he's 0-1 in Super Bowls, and 1-3 in NFC Championship games, but he's never gone one and done. Like Romo always has. Like Peyton usually does. McNabb never has. And if you can name two receivers who caught a pass yesterday, you win a cookie. Don't sit there and tell me McNabb isn't amazing. He's an elite quarterback who wins when he's supposed to, no matter what crappy talent surrounds him.

Wait a second.

I like McNabb!

Oh crap I like a Philly player! Hmm... well that's it! I could've slanted southeast and chosen the Titans, or picked a Bulldog in Hines Ward and the Steelers, but screw them all! Come on McNabb! Show those Philly fans how insane they are and win a Super Bowl! ... then leave, take Andy Reid with you, and remind that city what a Philly team is supposed to look like: cold, winless, and in the cellar.
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The NFL Playoffs: An Actual Football Postseason

First, let's not acknowledge how my picks went this week.... I went 6-4. Ugh. Thanks a lot Giants, Bucs, Bears and Saints. You are all dead to me now. Well, moreso than usual. In any case my playoff bracket was messed up a bit by Tampa's inability to beat the Raiders at home. What a collapse. Arguably worse than the Jets or Broncos. Tampa drops their final four games to get knocked out of the playoffs completely. Well that's what happens when you bench Jeff Garcia and your defensive coordinator takes a college job. How that defense collapsed. Tsk tsk. Right so the playoff bracket. Very very interesting, Philly sneaks in after dominating a distrastrous Dallas team... the Chargers destroy Denver and steal the division after Cutler's Brocnos lose their final three games... and Miami improves by ten wins over last season and knocks the Jets and Pats out the postseason. Also, non-playoff related, the Detroit Lions managed to lose again - setting a new landmark in futility by losing all sixteen games this season. 0-16. I hope Matt Stafford or Sam Bradford enjoy losing next year.

Basically here's the deal with the Falcons:
Saturday, Jan. 3, 4:30PM @ Arizona (NBC-TV). If we win, we will need the the Eagles to win if we want to avoid playing the Giants in the Divisional Round. If we win and Philly does, we'll head to Charlotte to take on the Panthers the following week.

Personally I think the Colts, Falcons and Eagles are the most dangerous non-bye teams in the bracket. Let's not forget the last time the Falcons played the Panthers and Vikings, beating them both (but let's do forget their meeting with Philly). The Eagles have beaten a lot of very good teams this season (including the Steelers, Bucs, Falcons and Cardinals), and the Colts are the hottest team in football, winning their final nine games. If the Colts weren't taking on an equally hot (and finally healthy) Chargers team, I'd say the Colts are a safe bet to get to the AFC Championship game. Anyway here's a lovely article from the good folks at ESPN: "Why Not the Falcons?" - Why the Falcons might be the most dangerous team in the NFC bracket. ESPN is definitely doing that sweet dirty bird for sure.

Right so lets take a look at the matchups this weekend, on Saturday and Sunday, and what we have to look forward to now that an actual football postseason has begun. Enough with the meaningless bowl games, lets get the playoffs going!

Saturday January 3rd
4:30PM: (5) Atlanta Falcons @ (4) Arizona Cardinals
Ryan/Turner VS. Warner
As long as Atlanta leans on their running game and Ryan minimizes his mistakes, the defense should get the handful of stops it needs to help the offense out-score Arizona's high-powered passing game. The main obstacle for the Falcons should be scoring enough points to keep up. They've shown they can put points on the board, with a variety of talented weapons in the air and on the ground. If they can limit their turnovers, the Falcons should win in a high-scoring matchup.

8:00PM: (5) Indianapolis Colts @ (4) San Diego Chargers
Manning VS. Rivers
These are the two best quarterbacks in the AFC, and you know they'll be on their game. This should ultimately come down to whether the Colts defense can contain the (at times) inconsistent Chargers offense, including limiting Tomlinson and the ground attack. I think the Colts D is up to the task. If they can force Rivers to beat them in a duel with Manning, the Colts should win. Another high scoring affair.

Sunday January 4th
1:00PM: (6) Baltimore Ravens @ (3) Miami Dolphins
Defense VS. Defense
The beaten down vet Pennington rose from the ashes to have a phenomenal year; rookie QB Joe Flacco went from 3 to 1 on the depth chart to become a viable ROY candidate. But this game won't come down to the quarterbacks. Its the defenses that will decide this. The Ravens need to decide on a stable running attack to get past the Dolphins if they want to win, and containing Ronnie Brown is a tough task as well. I think ultimately the Dolphins have more drive, more experience and a more consistent offensive approach to edge the Ravens.

4:30PM: (6) Philadelphia Eagles @ (3) Minnesota Vikings
McNabb VS. Defense
The Eagles improbably find themselves in the playoffs, staring down the league's best running back. Their defense is more than up to the task though. The bigger matchup is whether McNabb can overcome a strong Vikings defense to score enough points. The problem for Minnesota is the Philly offense is clicking, is healthy, is angry, and is hot as hell. Expect Philly to pull away in the second half and move on to the Divisional Round to play the Giants.

So there we have it! Can't wait for the weekend and some real football games.

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The Final Countdown! Week 17 Forecast!

Alright folks. Put away that delicious Christmas goose and stop playing with the kiddies, its time to get back into the fold. Its Week 17. The final week. The last chance for middling teams to make their push for the playoffs. Will it be Chicago or Minnesota? New England or Miami? Can Dallas last long enough to lose their Wild Card game again? Lots of drama coming this Sunday, lots of sweet, delicious, fattening drama. So let's get into it. I'm riding solo this time, seems everyone else is out of town or not working or just being lazy. But us MEN still have jobs to attend to. Jobs in cubicles. And cute little schnoodles at home. I went 3-2 last week... here's my super-sized fearless forecast for NFL Week 17:

1. STL at ATL: its the rams, its at home, and there's a playoff bye on the line, Falcons by 17
2. NE at BUF: tom brady jr. steps up again and wins in the snow, but not into the playoffs, Pats by 14
3. NYG at MIN: giants have nothing to play for, but they're still damn good and need some work recovering from injuries and Burress' absence, sorry Vikes, Giants by 6
4. CAR at NO: a win means a bye, but brees needs 400 yards for the single season record, and he'll come up short, so will the panthers, Saints by 6
5. OAK at TB: raiders overmatched in tampa, russell spends half the game on his back, Bucs by 17
   
6. CHI at HOU: the weather might.... matt schaub could... but kyle orton.... hmm. Bears by 14, take the division
7. JAX at BAL: the only thing the jags have left to prove is whether del rio should coach them next year, he probably wont, Ravens by 10
8. MIA at NYJ: poor favre. enjoy actual retirement. Dolphins by 14.
9. DAL at PHI: will mcnabb return? reid? nothing would be sweeter than to keep dallas out of the playoffs, romo should have won last week when he had the chance. Eagles by 8!
   
10. DEN at SD: san diego doing what they do late in the season: winning. broncos gave away this division weeks ago, sorry cutler. Chargers by 6.

How's this all shape the NFL playoff picture you might be asking yourself, reading this blog alone in your uncomfortable tent made of bed sheets and a wooden pole? Here's what we're left with:

AFC
Bye: (1) Titans, (2) Steelers
(3) Dolphins vs. (6) Ravens
(4) Chargers vs. (5) Colts

NFC
Bye: (1) Giants, (2) Falcons
(3) Bears vs. (6) Buccaneers
(4) Cardinals vs. (5) Panthers

NFC East eat your heart out. Read Full Article!

Playoff Bound!! #2 Seed Possible?

With a win over the Vikings yesterday, your beleaguered Atlanta Falcons are now playoff bound! At 10-5 the Falcons are only a game behind division-leading (and current #2 seed) Carolina Panthers after their loss to the Giants last night. In all likelihood the Miami Dolphins will be in the AFC playoffs, capping two remarkable turnaround seasons for two teams left dead in the water before the season started. Many major publications picked the Falcons to win 2 games or less this season. Its an unbelievable story and Dimitroff, Smith and the new front office deserve all the credit in the world for turning this franchise around in such a short time.

Added note, should the playoffs start today with the current seeding, Atlanta would visit Arizona for the Wild Card round. Arizona has been in a tailspin the last few games, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Atlanta go out west and show the Cardinals a thing or two.

Now then, who's doing the dirty bird??
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The Wild Wild NFC

After throwing two picks, losing a fumble and having a punt blocked, the Falcons somehow emerged victorious over a dominant Tampa Bay defense. With the win Atlanta improved to 1-1 against all three division opponents and helped continue the wacky trend of NFC South teams being undefeated at home against division opponents. Ridiculous. So now Atlanta and Tampa are deadlocked at 9-5 with two games to go. Carolina has clinched at least a share of the division title, and New Orleans appears all but out of the mix for a Wild Card spot. Meanwhile last night the Dallas Cowgirls toppled the New York Giants (now tied with Carolina at 11-3 for the #1 seed), improving their record to 9-5. A win tonight and Philadelphia would be 8-5-1. There's only two playoff spots available... who's gonna take 'em?

Let's take a look at the remaining schedules for the teams in question:

ATLANTA (9-5): at Min, vs Stl
TAMPA (9-5): vs SD, vs Oak
DALLAS (9-5): vs Bal, at PHI
PHILLY (7-5-1): vs. CLE, at WAS, vs DAL
CHICAGO (8-6): vs GB, at HOU

Tampa hosts two AFC West teams, which tends to be two automatic wins. They improve to 11-5, I think they're in easily. Atlanta goes to Minnesota to take on MVP-hopeful Adrian Peterson and the hot Vikings, a winnable game for Atlanta but will be close. They throttle the Rams at home, lets say 10-6. Dallas hosts a very good Baltimore team who's fighting for a playoff spot of their own before heading to Philadelphia for a huge game against McNabb's Eagles. Dallas could easily lose both games, but lets say they take care of Baltimore at home, end at 10-6. Philly takes care of business tonight against the Browns, beats up the fading Redskins and takes care of Dallas at home? Its possible, but they'd still be 10-5-1 and get left out. Chicago could easily lose both of their games, but I'd say they split the two (probably lose at Houston) and end up 9-7, they're out too.

We're left with Tampa at 11-5, Atlanta at 10-6 and Dallas at 10-6. They did not play head-to-head, would both have a conference record of 7-5, and so we'd go to step three of the tie-breaking procedure: "won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four." Dallas played (and beat) Tampa, who Atlanta played twice, going 1-1. Atlanta lost to Philly, who Dallas will have played twice, going 1-1. Both teams beat Green Bay, but Dallas lost to St. Louis.. Atlanta's Week 17 opponent. Assuming I did this right (and I probably didnt).. in games against common opponents, Atlanta will have gone 3-2. Dallas will have gone 3-2. Okay so next is strength of victory (combined winning percentage of teams beaten)! Which Dallas has the advantage on... stupid Lions and Chiefs.

Look. Win and we're in. Beat Minnesota, beat St. Louis and we are all but guaranteed a playoff spot. Dallas is good but not good enough to end the season beating the Giants, Ravens and Eagles in a row. Its December! The real Romo is bound to show up.. then all this tiebreaking math and goofiness wont matter at all... and we'll be doing the dirty bird like its 1999.
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